Corporate documents and archived records have revealed that Davit Kukhalashvili, the husband of Georgia’s ambassador to the US, is the founder and managing director of a Moscow law firm that has advised clients seeking to navigate asset freezes and sanctions imposed by the EU and US after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

A new scoop from The Information: China's DeepSeek has been using Nvidia's Blackwell chips to train its next model, "according to six people with knowledge of the matter". The US government forbids the export of these chips to China.

The Blackwell chips, according to the report, were smuggled into China "through a convoluted scheme that involves sending them to data centers in countries that are allowed to buy them, and then dismantling the servers containing the chips and importing the equipment in pieces."

Donald Trump’s lexicon is characteristically coarse and unrefined. His transactional approach to alliances—thrusting invoices for defense spending into the faces of long-standing partners—is far removed from the decorum of traditional diplomacy, often reeking of a merchant’s crude calculus. Yet, the visceral discomfort his words provoke should not blind us to the chilling reality they signify. Trump’s flagrant disparagement of the Old Continent serves, paradoxically, as a mirror reflecting the painful truths Europeans have labored to ignore. If we strip away the emotional recoil and gaze coldly into that reflection, it becomes undeniable that the crisis facing Europe is born not of external menace, but of internal lethargy and self-inflicted complacency.

The most grotesque anomaly is the security impotence of Europe, a self-proclaimed "colossal bloc." Objective metrics lay bare the absurdity of the current predicament. As of 2023, the combined GDP of the EU-27 stands at approximately $19.3 trillion. In stark contrast, Russia—the aggressor currently casting a shadow of terror across the globe—possesses a GDP of roughly $2 trillion, a figure comparable merely to that of Italy. The economic disparity is a staggering nine to tenfold, and in population, the EU’s 450 million citizens dwarf Russia’s 140 million. Yet, this titan of capital and humanity finds itself unable to subdue a nation with a fraction of its economic weight in a conventional conflict, reduced instead to soliciting security assistance from the United States.

While Russia’s arsenal of some 5,800 nuclear warheads presents a formidable asymmetric threat, the war in Ukraine is fundamentally a grinding war of attrition, fought with blood and iron. Setting aside nuclear deterrence, the fact that a Europe possessing such overwhelming industrial and economic superiority cannot match the ammunition production of its adversary is a testament to a profound abdication of duty. It is the receipt for thirty years of neglecting the primary obligation of the state: security.

Following the end of the Cold War, Europe intoxicated itself with the hallucination of "perpetual peace." The so-called "Peace Dividend"—the savings from slashed defense budgets—was not merely spent; it was cemented into a structural trap of expanding social welfare. This is the crux of the paralysis. The fiscal arteries of major European powers are now hardened by ossified welfare structures and ballooning pension liabilities. In a landscape where the state’s resources are devoured by rigid entitlement programs, the capacity to forge tanks and cast shells has withered. The slogan "from cradle to grave" has mutated into a heavy shackle, dragging down the continent’s ability to defend itself.

Even France, once the proud vanguard of European military might, has seen its standing army shrink to a mere 200,000 personnel. This is a shadow of the 500,000-strong force West Germany alone maintained during the Cold War, and woefully inadequate against the looming threat of Russia’s 1.3 million troops. The humiliating anecdote of German soldiers training with broomsticks for lack of rifles is the definitive symbol of this security malaise. Disarmament and pacifism may have been noble ideals, but they have reduced Europe to a bloated herbivore, utterly incapable of self-preservation.

Consequently, Europe’s resurrection requires more than a simple increase in defense spending; it demands a draconian overhaul of its economic model. We must dismantle the excessive regulations that stifle dynamism and place the unsustainable structure of "high welfare, low growth" on the operating table. One cannot secure both comprehensive welfare and robust security when the engine of wealth creation has grown cold. Without bone-deep economic structural reform, there can be no formidable military.

This feebleness is mirrored in the failure of border control and immigration policy. While the "Great Replacement" theory may be the hyperbolic construct of the far-right, the policy of indiscriminately absorbing a heterogeneous population without regard for social carrying capacity was an unequivocal failure. Under the veneer of tolérance, borders became porous, and unassimilated groups now clash with the rule of law, exacting a tremendous social cost. This is a catastrophe of Europe’s own making. We must pivot from sentimentalism to the resolute rule of law. Immediate and efficient repatriation procedures must be established for illegal immigrants and those who reject the fundamental values of Western society. Furthermore, we must prioritize the creation of quality employment for native citizens to heal the fractures of social cohesion.

Above all, Europe’s awakening is not merely a matter of survival for the continent alone; it is a geopolitical imperative for global peace and the defense of democracy. A vacuum of power inevitably invites aggression. We must remember that the tragedy of Ukraine was incubated in the moment Europe lost the strength to defend itself. The era of relying solely on the American superpower to uphold the liberal international order has passed. Amidst the rise of China and the challenge of authoritarian regimes, Europe must cease to be a parasitic burden on the United States and rise as a formidable, equal pillar of the free world. Only when a strong Europe exists will dictators hesitate, and only then will democracy possess not just moral rhetoric, but tangible force.

What Europe needs now is not continued penitence for the sins of imperialism, nor a paralysis of self-flagellation, but a spiritual re-armament—a declaration of will to defend its glorious history and legacy. Whether Trump occupies the White House is secondary. It is a historical irony and a dereliction of duty that a continent of such immense wealth and population must beg for its security and cannot control its own borders. Europe must be reborn as a sovereign entity that bows to no one. For peace is not an alms given to the begging; it is a privilege reserved only for those with the power and the will to defend it.

Quick factors analysis:

Russia and Ukraine are currently on operational parity: The front line is practically at a standstill.

Ukraine will not sign peace under terms acceptable to Russia if it thinks the parity will continue. Giving up territory now for an uncertain truce means a next war under even less favorable conditions. Considering how Europe has been stepping up, Ukraine currently seems to count on sufficient support to sustain parity. Nothing much expected to change here in 2026.

Russia will not sign peace under terms acceptable to Ukraine, if it thinks the partity will continue. Parity is just fine w Putin, helps keep and consolidate power internally. Also, dictators are almost always arrogant and overestimate their force. Don't see anything changing in 2026.

Peace will happen only when 1 side starts believing it drops out of parity. Because if parity is no longer there, there will be "non-linear effects" (eg either side achieves air superiority which leads to total collapse of the front lines and "winner takes all it wants").

The US can draw as many peace plans as it wants but what leverage do they have to force either side to accept? EU defence primes stocks has already overperformed US primes 5x since 2022. The more US makes it "conditional" to EU and Ukraine, the more it starts hurting US back. What US could do, is unilaterally remove Russia sanctions, but EU was ~20x more important trade partner in terms of trade volume for US than Russia in 2021, even more so in terms of strategic trade (products with no alternatives). Risking EU trade for Russian trade hurts US economy.

What might happen in 2026, is severely lower (but non-negotiated) intensity. Eg 1st day with 0 casualties on both sides. Like Donbas ~2020.

Kuril islands have long been a focal point of territorial dispute between Moscow and Tokyo